WHAT'S WORKING NOW IN FOREX

SPRING 2024 EDITION

So I woke up Saturday morning (April 13th) intending to write up this entire page for everyone to learn from, and in my introduction I wrote the following:

"If you’ve been paying attention, at least in the English speaking press there have been several reports over the last few days saying that Iran is about to open a war front with Israel."

I got about halfway through this letter and then got distracted by some non-Forex things going on in my life and decided to come back to it on Sunday to finish out the page.

If you have been watching the news, you already know what happened last Saturday night.

Iran sent somewhere around 300 drones and cruise missles in the direction of Israel, who successfully stopped all but a couple from hitting any targets of interest and causing any significant damage.

Now the world sits and waits for Israel's response. (Edit: Israel allegedly bombed Isfahan overnight but details are scarce).

I bring this up, not because it's about politics, or "picking a team" to support.

This is about recognizing that whenever there is some sort of significant disruption in the worldwide status quo, there are certain assets that become hyperactive and give us multiple opportunities to profit where before there were few.

I've taken some heat over the years for saying this, but that doesn't make it any less true:

Traders Dance While The World Burns

Craziness can equal profits, and this is one of those times where it can equal profits x 20.

I'm talking about trading Oil and Gold.

Oil should be obvious.

The Middle East has never really been a hotbed of stability, but there are those occasional events, like a mid-level world power flinging a few hundred missles and bombs over the border at another mid-level world power, where what little stability once existed vanishes for a good long while.

This is one of those times.

In fact, for some real life, personal impact sort of proof, you can go to your nearest gas station and chart the rise in gas prices over the last couple of weeks (when all this Iran bombing Israel chatter got serious).

With Oil, a 5 cent Renko box and a very small spread (2-3 cents, preferably) was all you needed to catch one or two 10-20 cent price moves, and those translated into significant profits under normal circumstances.

But thanks to the recent instability, now a 10 cent box is the better way to trade, as price has become much more active (like 5 or 10 times so) and a box size that is in fact equal to many of my previous profit targets will now plot out 3-5 boxes in one direction and return gains I could only once dream of.

And Gold?

Gold broke the $2,000 an ounce barrier a number of weeks ago and simply hasn't looked back.

Part of that reflects the fact that inflation is still walking among us, making the US Dollar less valuable.

And of course, Gold is playing it's usual role of "safe harbor" during times of crisis, such as the looming start of World War III as is predicted by many Middle East watchers.

Where a 35 cent or even a 70 cent Renko box was more than enough to secure profits on a $2 move, now I am using a $2 box size (200 setting) and shooting for $6-$8 moves, of which there seem to be several per day now.

And what am I using to find these 5 Star level trades?

The Renko HMA

And it looks like this:

If I activate the lines of the Renko HMA, it looks like this:

If this looks vaguely familiar, the  Renko HMA and the Slope Direction Line (one of my all-time favorite indicators) are kissing cousins.

But the difference here is the Renko HMA is a turbo-charged version of the Slope, designed to run faster, smoother, and with our entire lineup of Alarm options:

A lot of you know I dislike alarms intensely, as I think when you trade you should be paying attention to trading and nothing else.

HOWEVER…

When you start trading Oil and Gold with the increased Renko box sizes, you’ll regularly find yourself in trades that last 1-2-3 hours or more, as well as waiting a similar length of time for a new signal to develop.

This actually makes Alarms a valuable option for you, both in determining when new signals are  formed as well as warning you the current trend you’ve been trading is disappearing.

So many of you trade with alarms I include the package of Alarm options as a matter of course, but in this case, I agree that leaving some of them on is the smart play.

How To Trade The Renko HMA Signals

Trading these chart is simple.

When you get an Arrow to lock into place (meaning the Renko box that is generating the Arrow closes and a new box opens) you take the trade in the direction of the arrow.

In the case of Gold, if you get one box to close in your favor you’re up $2 on the trade, which makes it a great trade already.  If you get 2 or 3 boxes to close in your favor, you need to start thinking about either moving your stop loss into profit of at least $2.

And should you get into a trade where you are 5 boxes in profit, that is a $10 move and not too many trades keep going further than that. So now it’s time to give serious thought to exiting.

Oil is traded in pretty much the same way.

1 Renko box equals a 10 cent move on oil (and that used to be my 1st target when trading Oil pre-pandemic). If you scroll through a Renko chart (10 pip/cent box setting) you’ll see a lot of 3, 4 and 5 box moves.

So the same rule applies as with Gold.  If you get up 2 boxes (20 cents) you should be moving your S/L to somewhere near break even. Once you get to 3,4 and 5 boxes in profit you should be dragging your S/L behind price action box for box, meaning each time a new box opens you drag your S/L one box deeper into profit, leaving yourself about a 20 cent cushion between price and your trailing stop.

London and New York sessions are by far the best to trade, although both charts often begin a trend move during the first 3-4 hours of the Asian session, so pretty much everyone gets a fair shot at some great trades with large box size Renko charts for Oil and Gold.

What's Included In This Package

The Renko HMA is available for MT4 at the moment, and we will add the MT5 and the NinjaTrader options as soon as my guy gets them coded, tested and in my hands (figure Monday, April 22 for MT5 and Wednesday, April 24 for NT).

On the download page you’ll get the Renko HMA and renko generators for both MT4 and MT5, along with video and PDF training for installing and setting up Renko charts and the Renko HMA.

Basically everything you’ll need to start crushing Oil and Gold on a daily basis.

No one nows how long this turmoil is going to continue, but smart money says it’s with us for the next year or so at a minimum.  That is more than enough time to build small accounts into large ones with minimal risk on both charts.

Like almost all my other WWNIF products, this one is priced at a very affordable $39, and this is one of the few times I’ve felt comfortable telling you that you can easily make that back on a single Gold or Oil trade.

And if you have been giving Prop Challenges a try, this might be the one combination of charts and indicator that shoots you across the finish line of the challenge with all targets satisfied and a funded account awaiting your attention.

As I mentioned earlier, this package works due to a very chaotic political/economic condition the world finds itself facing at the moment. This too will pass, just like all the other similar situations the human race has faced over the centuries.

So dance, trader, dance, and start trading this Oil/Gold chart combo while conditions are ripe.

MAY 3 VIDEO UPDATE

Several people have asked me to provide a video showing how to use the HMA as a sort of Manual AutoScaler, using the arrows as a signal to add in a second trade.  I had the US30 set up this morning for some post-NFP trading, and this is what happened.

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